A quick look at the Doomben 10,000.
Four of the last 5 favourites have won but the record before that is not so good for the hot pots…
In the last 30 years 8 favourites have saluted, while there have been 10 horses win over the $10 mark.
Rough Habit, Falvelon, Gold Edition and General Nediym have all been beaten in recent times when starting favourite.
*The barriers are in a very fair starting point with a good run to the first turn and I don’t worry too much about that unless there is a capacity field. History says it is advantageous to draw from gates 1 to 7.
*It is the main lead up to the Stradbroke handicap and horses like BETTER THAN READY will meet a lot of these far better at the weights in the Stradbroke so you really want to see how the horses like him run here. If they can compete at WFA they will be far better off in the handicap a fortnight later.
Three year olds have dominated racing this year and YOUR SONG will start a short priced fav here. I am not knocking the horse but I can’t take $2.40 about a horse coming off a career best run on the heaviest track we have seen. Some horses were nearly falling over on that track as it was falling apart and it is hard to get a guide on how good he went. No doubt he is a very good horse and is obviously well up to winning this, it’s the price that I am worried about. BETTER THAN READY is a horse I have always liked and back on a better surface will suit him, as will the 1350m. I’d rather EF for him and back to the handicap in a fortnight is his go but he will run well with the pace on here. EPAULETTE is the horse we may be still learning about as well. He has performed extremely well but the best pointer is the wrap Darley seem to have on him and they are rarely wrong.
The older horses BUFFERING and RAIN AFFAIR have copped a bit of slack and I don’t think that’s real fair. BUFFERING should jump out of the ground here and if they avoid a speed battle with each other they are more than capable of rolling the ‘young guns’. Nothing went right last start and it’s hard to sack a horse as honest as him after one bad run. Both Pride and Heathcote are happy going into the big one.
www.tatts.com for the latest markets.
*Up to 20ml is predicted today, so fingers crossed we don’t get any more as that will have a big impact on not only this race, but the whole day and carnival.
The big FREE preview will be up on Friday. You should also be able to hear a preview through the site or helter-skelter website and most likely on the Saturday ‘morning mail’ with Steve Hewlett.
(After the draw EPAULETTE is the horse that looks to get the best run but a lot of water to go under the bridge before the race)
1 RANGIRANGDOO (NZ) –Tim Clark – 14 – 59kg
2 BUFFERING– D Browne – 12 – 59kg
3 MANAWANUI –G Schofield – 10 – 59kg
4 RAIN AFFAIR –Christian Reith – 5 – 59kg
5 SPIRIT OF BOOM –Michael Cahill – 13 – 59kg
6 MY QUEST FOR PEACE (IRE) –L Nolen – 11 – 59kg
7 JETSET LAD (NZ) –J Riddell – 2 – 59kg
8 YOUR SONG –Hugh Bowman – 15 – 57kg
9 SEA SIREN -Jim Cassidy – 9 – 57kg
10 EPAULETTE –Kerrin McEvoy – 4 – 57kg
11 YOSEI– Ms Michelle Payne – 7 – 57kg
12 PUNCH ON –Paul Hammersley – 8 – 57kg
13 PANE IN THE GLASS –C Munce – 3 – 57kg
14 STEPS IN TIME –Nash Rawiller – 6 – 57kg
15 BETTER THAN READY –R McMahon – 1 – 57kg
