I feel the market has it right with the main 4-5 chances on top and then there are another half dozen that could land in the money and not surprise. After that you have a few out of form and don’t look much of a chance.
Doesn’t seem to be much speed in this race and that is the only bit that causes some guessing for me, it’s a tricky speed map to try and work out where they may land.
Huge fan of Trainer Willie Mullins, he has VAUBAN and ABSURDE. He brought the same two horses down last year and admitted in hindsight he might have got their preparations wrong. VAUBAN came here a bit fresh and he poured the work into him cup week. This year he has raced him to have him fit and will race a bit fresher this year. He’s a world class stayer. ABSURDE was the improving type last year and has been lightly raced since to target this race for 12 months. Was a last start winner and even the trainer admitted he was a little surprised by the win as he’d left improvement in the horse. Last years race was run at a hectic speed and of all the horses on in the first half, he was clearly the best of them. Hit the lead and went for home and it was mission impossible off that tempo. Thought he was brave to fight as long as he did to finish 7th. Been carrying 61kg over there and the drop to 52.5kg is suitable. From the barrier I say they land around midfield and ride a more patient ride. Confident he will look the winner at some point again.
SEA KING won the Bendigo Cup and ONESMOOTHOPERATOR won the Geelong cup in similar fashion. They both bolted in and fair to say they are similar types of horse. They went over the line with each other in the 2800m Ebor handicap a couple of runs ago. SEA KING was obviously a bit fresh, he trucked up and put them away quickly. You’d expect him to take good benefit out of that run and if that’s the case, he can win it. Williams is riding brilliantly and he’s on ONESMOOTHOPERATOR. Sat off them at Geelong and showed a good turn of foot for a stayer. Drops 4kg off the win, fitter and Williams should find the right spot in running to find cover.
BUCKAROO is one of the best horses in the land and his form this prep after being gelded is top shelf. Won the G1 Underwood three runs back, then nosed out in the Turnbull by Via Sistina who then franked the form and bolted in Cox plate day. Last start was the flashing light run in the Caulfield Cup (Best L400m and 200m of the race). The 3200m is a little query and the gate isn’t great, but he’s full of class and doesn’t know how to run poorly.
Away from those above, there are some going well that I’ll think about in trifecta’s etc. ZARDOZI is a nice mare in very good form. She’s had the “Cummings” lead up to the cup with a run on Saturday. Really good through the line there and she has been timed to the minute. LAND LEGEND is a genuine stayer who won the G1 Metropolitan and solid placing in the Caulfield Cup. His little issue is he can over race a little and needs a good ride early to find cover and relax. INTERPRETATION was great in this race last year and his last two runs have been good again. Bad gate but will be strong late. OKITA SOUSHI won the MV cup, might be positive in the run, Kah rides and want to respect. The Unknown is WARP SPEED, the Japanese horse. Was horrible in the Caulfield Cup but might have needed the run and didn’t handle the soft ground.
*Not much between a lot of good horses in form and one of the more open Cups I can think of. Very little between what I see as the five main chances and hard to put them in some sort of order. Just a very slight lean to ABSURDE.
**May be updated leading into TUESDAY, but feel free to share link with anyone interested.
2024 Melbourne Cup Selections
9-ABSURDE $10
13-ONESMOOTHOPERATOR $9
15-SEA KING $12
2-BUCKAROO $6.50
1-VAUBAN $6
–
–
TWO FLOGS LINKS: (spotify and apple)
SPOTIFY: https://open.spotify.com/show/6aY7uIE9mgrX6FmbPFkZET?si=9fae9f8b4d124192
APPLE: https://podcasts.apple.com/au/podcast/two-flogs/id1665857689
